I seriously have to ask myself this question about the application for the job at U#1 and I need to prepare myself for it too (because that's what realists* do).
I know it's probably too early to hear back from the search committee (they started reviewing applications last Thursday) and, of course, I keep on thinking of reasons why they would rather not have a local person take the job, especially if deans start pressuring them because of "spousal" reasons. Sigh...
I don't think that knowing a couple of people in the department, even if one of them may be the search committee chair, helps at all. Maybe the contrary.
OK, call me a pessimist if that's what needs to be done, but I need to rehearse all kinds of worst case scenarios.
And, answering my own question -- if nothing comes of it I already have two "half" jobs for next year (although U#2's job seems to be a "phantom" job at the moment -- the classes are not in my online schedule!) and... delightfully, I'll be able to sit in/help teach an MPB** graduate class every Tuesday morning!
I have lots of good things to look forward to, so I should be calm and confident, not worried. Ha! I wish! I don't know how I can prepare for an interview if one is scheduled. Sigh... I'll try to ask my friends to help me out! Fingers crossed!
* I refuse to say I'm a pessimist. I do see the positive side of life, but I desperately need to prepare myself for the worse every time. Maybe I am always pessimistic about money, but I think I have good reason to be! K and I almost argued about it this morning, sigh... he can't stand what he calls my negative/pessimistic thinking.
**Música Popular Brasileira - Braz. music.